Despite the entire auto industry is experiencing supply chain challenges, thanks to soaring gasoline prices, Tesla car orders are also rapidly increasing. Several analysts predict that Tesla is on track to record new vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of this year.
Tesla may have delivered 309,158 vehicles globally in the first three months of this year, a 40% increase from the 184,800 vehicles it delivered in the first quarter of 2021, according to more than a dozen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, the company’s previous highest quarterly delivery figure.
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While profitability and healthy financials are critical, deliveries are one of Tesla’s most closely watched performance metrics when a quarter ends, helping to underpin Tesla’s financial performance and widely viewed as a barometer of consumer demand for electric vehicles as consumers switch from gasoline-powered vehicles to electric vehicles.
A number of major automakers are set to report U.S. sales on Friday, but Tesla has not disclosed a specific date for reporting first-quarter global sales. Tesla’s manufacturing capacity has only increased slightly since the fourth quarter of last year, as it recently started delivering cars built at its Berlin plant.
Meanwhile, the Austin, Texas factory may also have helped boost the delivery numbers, as some Model Y vehicles made at the factory have been spotted on the road, but it’s unclear if they’ve actually been delivered to customers and will be included in the Tesla’s delivery figures for the first quarter of 2022.
Moreover, Tesla’s deliveries have increased every quarter since the first quarter of 2020. Tesla currently relies on two factories for global deliveries: the Fremont, California, U.S. plant assembles Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y vehicles. The Shanghai plant mainly produces the Model 3 and Model Y, and in addition to being sold in the Chinese market, many Chinese-produced cars are also exported to Europe.
Furthermore, Tesla has delivered the first Model Ys at its new factory near Berlin, Germany, and will celebrate the opening of its new Austin factory next week with a 15,000-person ceremony called “Cyber Rodeo.”
While Tesla is on track to record new deliveries, the company has faced a number of challenges this past quarter. The shutdown of the Shanghai plant, for example, could weigh on Tesla’s sales. New cars made at the Shanghai plant account for more than half of Tesla’s total vehicle sales in 2021, surpassing the Fremont plant. The shutdown could be a big reason why Tesla’s deliveries fell for the first time in two years.
“We see the Shanghai plant shutdown as a potential downside risk given that Tesla’s deliveries typically ramp up before the end of the quarter,” said Dan Levy, an analyst at Credit Suisse. Tesla delivered about 307,000 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year.
The strong delivery numbers could boost Tesla’s shares, extending a rally that has pushed its market value back above a trillion dollars. The electric-car maker deftly navigated a supply chain crisis, instituted a stock split, and presided over the opening of a new factory, all of which have helped boost investor confidence.
On Thursday, Tesla shares closed at $1,084.59 per share, up 0.65%. The stock has been on an uptrend of late, but not the S&P 500 or automakers like General Motors and Ford. Tesla’s stock price has also far outperformed EV startups Riyan or Lucid.
